Tuesday, December 2, 2008

investment

Investmen is a term with several closely-related meanings in business management, finance and economics, related to saving or deferring consumption.

Investment is the choice by the individual to risk his savings with the hope of gain. Rather than store the good produced, or its money equivalent, the investor chooses to use that good either to create a durable consumer or producer good, or to lend the original saved good to another in exchange for either interest or a share of the profits.

In the first case, the individual creates durable consumer goods, hoping the services from the good will make his life better. In the second, the individual becomes an entrepreneur using the resource to produce goods and services for others in the hope of a profitable sale. The third case describes a lender, and the fourth describes an investor in a share of the business.

In each case, the consumer obtains a durable asset or investment, and accounts for that asset by recording an equivalent liability. As time passes, and both prices and interest rates change, the value of the asset and liability also change.

An asset is usually purchased, or equivalently a deposit is made in a bank, in hopes of getting a future return or interest from it. The word originates in the Latin "vestis", meaning garment, and refers to the act of putting things (money or other claims to resources) into others' pockets. See Invest. The basic meaning of the term being an asset held to have some recurring or capital gains. It is an asset that is expected to give returns without any work on the asset per se.


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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Budget deficit in 2008 surges to all-time high

WASHINGTON - The federal budget deficit soared to $454.8 billion in 2008 as a housing collapse and efforts to combat the economic slowdown pushed the tide of government red ink to the highest level in history.
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The Bush administration said Tuesday the deficit for the budget year that ended Sept. 30 was more than double the $161.5 billion recorded in 2007.

It surpassed the previous record of $413 billion set in 2004. Economists predicted a far worse number next year as the costs of the government's rescue of the financial system and the economic hard times hit the nation's balance sheet.

Some analysts believe that next year's deficit could easily top $700 billion, giving the next president a formidable challenge.

The administration blamed this year's record deficit on a litany of economic woes. The prolonged housing slump sharply reduced economic growth and has sent the unemployment rate rising, developments that reduce tax revenues.

"This year's budget results reflect the ongoing housing correction and the manifestation of that in strained capital markets and slower growth," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a statement accompanying the deficit report. "While it will take time to work through this period, we will overcome the current challenges facing our nation."

Democrats said the administration's economic policies were responsible for the growing deficit. They noted that when Bush took office in 2001, the budget was in surplus with projections that total surpluses over the next decade would reach $5.6 trillion. Those surpluses never materialized. The economy fell into a recession and then faced unexpected costs such as fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and dealing with the aftermaths of Hurricane Katrina. Democrats also cite the costs of Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts as further reasons for the budget imbalances.

"The eight years of this administration will include the five biggest budget deficits in history," said House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt, D-S.C. "The resulting debt will be passed to our children and grandchildren."

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., said the national debt had climbed by more than $1 trillion while Bush was in office and "the next president will inheriting a fiscal and economic mess of historic proportions."

The credit crisis that has swamped the financial system is boosting outlays because of the costs of protecting the depositors of failed banks.

Those costs will increase significantly in coming years. The government faces the prospects of paying for the $700 billion rescue plan that will boost spending as the government spends $250 billion in coming months to buy stock from banks to bolster their balance sheets and also buys up bad assets currently on banks' books.

Both of those programs are aimed at relieving strains on banks so they can resume more normal lending and ease a credit crisis that is threatening to push the country into a severe recession.

Many private economists believe the country will not be able to escape a recession even if the rescue program is successful at getting banks to resume lending.

The Bush administration is projecting that the deficit in the current budget year will rise to $482 billion, but that estimate made in the summer does not include the costs of the rescue program passed by Congress on Oct. 3.

The deficit for 2008 reflected the costs incurred in recent months for a $168 billion economic stimulus program that Congress passed at the beginning of this year in an effort to combat the economic slowdown. Those checks did give the economy a boost in the late spring and early summer. That impact has now faded leading many analysts to project that the current quarter and the first three months of next year will show declines in overall input.

Stocks pull back as profit-taking sets in

NEW YORK - Wall Street ended a relatively calm session with a moderate loss Tuesday as investors, while happy with the government's plans to spend up to $250 billion to buy stock in private banks, decided to cash in profits from the previous day's massive advance as they refocused their attention on the economy.
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It was the first time in nine sessions that the Dow Jones industrial average didn't close with triple-digit losses or gains although it did swing in a 700-point range. The Dow closed down 76 points a day after its record 936-point jump.

Big advances by many bank stocks helped offset some of the declines in the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 index, giving them a better showing for the day than the Nasdaq composite index, which fell more than 3 percent. The technology-dominated Nasdaq also lagged ahead of a profit report from Intel Corp., as investors were reminded of the troubled economy and its impact on corporate earnings.

Profit-taking set in after the Dow surged more than 400 points at the opening. Wall Street is expected to see jittery trading in the weeks and perhaps months ahead because of worries about the economy; stocks also tend to ratchet up and down when they're recovering from a plunge like the one Wall Street has suffered in the past two weeks.

"We don't know if the bottom is in," said Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer and chief economist at LPL Financial, referring to the market's advance Monday after huge losses last week. "We certainly expect heightened volatility for a fair amount of time while we sort out just exactly what's going on."

Investors had snapped up stocks Monday in anticipation of the government's plan. President Bush said Tuesday the government would use a portion of the $700 billion financial bailout passed at the start of the month to inject capital into the nation's major banks, which have been slammed by souring mortgage investments. The move follows a similar one announced Monday by European governments to invest about $2 trillion in their own troubled banks.

The revised bailout plan differs from the original in that it aims to recapitalize banks, not just buy the troubled assets off their books at prices that could leave the banks with losses.

"This begins to penetrate the core of the problem," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage house Avalon Partners Inc.

Robert Dye, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group, said the government's actions likely will help revive the credit markets, but now that the plan is place, investors are shifting back to concerns about the economy.

"These steps are not going to turn the real economy on a dime," he said of the government intervention. "The two keys to the fundamental economy right now are the job market and the housing market and both of those remain distressed."

"There isn't one bottom here. We're talking about multiple events. There will be a bottom in financial market and another in the labor market and one in the housing market. And they're not going to all line up," Dye said.

The Dow fell 76.62, or 0.82 percent, to 9,310.99.

Broader stock indicators also declined. The S&P 500 index fell 5.34, or 0.53 percent, to 998.01, and the Nasdaq fell 65.24, or 3.54 percent, to 1,779.01.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, including many tech concerns, fell 16.24, or 2.84 percent, to 554.65.

Though the major indexes showed losses, advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 9 to 7 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 7.97 billion shares, compared with 7.1 billion shares traded Monday.

Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, said investors pleased about the government's plan gravitated toward industrial companies, seeing them as more likely to benefit from a revived credit market than tech companies. That also helped send the Nasdaq lower.

"People are thinking more of the blue chips are going to respond," he said.

The Dow remains 34.3 percent below its Oct. 9, 2007 record close of 14,164.53, and could fluctuate around these levels as investors await signs of stabilization in the housing and job markets.

Cardillo said he believes the worst lows are behind the stock market, but other analysts have shied away from saying Wall Street had reached a bottom. The Dow has not yet fallen below its low during the last bear market, the closing level of 7,286.27 on Oct. 9, 2002.

Investors have been trying to regain their footing after a gruesome week that obliterated about $2.4 trillion in shareholder wealth. The Dow shot higher Monday after an eight-day losing streak that amassed point losses of just under 2,400, or 22.1 percent, bringing the blue-chip index to its lowest level since April 2003. That 18.2 percent weekly plunge in the Dow was the worst in the index's 112-year history.

Following the Columbus Day holiday, the U.S. government bond markets reopened Tuesday and indicated that investors' desire for safe assets remains strong. The three-month Treasury bill's yield, which moves opposite its price, rose to 0.30 percent from 0.21 percent late Friday, and the 10-year note's yield rose to 4.03 percent from 3.86 percent.

A drop in a key bank-to-bank lending rate indicates banks could be growing more willing to lend to one another. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month dollar loans fell to 4.64 percent from 4.75 percent. Libor is important because many consumer loans, including about half of all adjustable-rate mortgages, are tied to it.

The recent sell-off in stocks came amid a seize-up in lending, as banks and investors around the world grew fearful about the creditworthiness of other institutions following the September bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the subsequent failure of thrift bank Washington Mutual Inc. Tight lending conditions make it harder and more expensive for businesses and consumers to get a loan, a headwind for economic growth.

Many of the nine banks the government identified as ones in which it will invest advanced Tuesday. Among them, Citigroup Inc. rose $2.87, or 18 percent, to $18.62, while Bank of America Corp. rose $3.74, or 16 percent, to $26.53. JP Morgan Chase & Co. fell $1.28, or 3.1 percent, to $40.71.

Intel fell $1.06, or 6.2 percent, to $15.93 ahead of its quarterly earnings report, which arrived after the closing bell. The chip maker's profit topped analysts' forecasts though the company warned the financial crisis is making it difficult to project results and that its fourth-quarter sales could fall short of Wall Street estimates.

Light, sweet crude fell $2.56 to settle at $78.63 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The dollar fell against most other major currencies, while gold prices declined.

Asian and European markets soared Tuesday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 3.19 percent, after a more than 10 percent increase on Monday. Japan's Nikkei index, catching up from the country's market holiday Monday, jumped 14.15 percent — the largest increase ever.

In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 3.23 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 2.70 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 2.75 percent. source

Bulls keep running

NEW YORK -- Stocks surged Tuesday morning, adding to the prior session's historic rally, as investors cheered the Bush administration's plan to recapitalize major banks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 363 points in the early going. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 3.9% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 2%.

Stocks surged Monday, with the Dow industrials soaring some 936 points, or 11%, marking the largest-ever point advance for the blue-chip index. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit point-gain records.

Investors reacted to global efforts over the weekend and into Monday aimed at unfreezing credit markets and getting money flowing through the pipelines.

Treasury trading resumed following the Columbus Day holiday, and could give a good indication of whether all the recent interventions are working.

On Tuesday, the Bush administration announced plans to recapitalize U.S. banks in an effort to end the credit freeze that has slammed the global economy. Among the moves announced: a $250 billion investment in nine major banks and a plan for the the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will back up new senior bank debt for three years.

"These efforts are designed to directly benefit the American people by stabilizing our overall financial system and helping our economy recover," President Bush said in a statement outside the White House.

Overseas markets extended their celebration, with Japan's Nikkei surging to a single-day record gain of 14.2%.

European markets rallied for the second straight day. London's FTSE-100 was up 5.5% in afternoon trading, while Frankfurt's DAX and Paris' CAC-40 climbed by 5%.

Numbers: Soft drink maker PepsiCo (PEP, Fortune 500) reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings and said it would cut 3,300 jobs due to the global economic slowdown. Pepsi shares fell 3.8% in premarket trading.

Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) reported higher third-quarter earnings that beat expectations. J&J shares rose 5% in premarket trading.

Dollar and oil. The dollar remained under pressure early Tuesday. The greenback was down against the 15-nation euro and the British pound, but was up slightly against the Japanese yen.

Crude prices, meanwhile, stepped higher. Prices, which have plunged some 43% from the record $147.27 a barrel set on July 11, were up $2.01 to $83.21 a barrel early Tuesday.

Oil prices have been under pressure amid worries that the global crisis would undercut demand. Late last week, OPEC announced it would hold an emergency meeting Nov. 18 to address the issue. source

Monday, October 13, 2008

Banco Santander buying rest of Sovereign for $1.9B

NEW YORK - Banco Santander of Spain said Monday it would buy the other three-quarters stake in Sovereign Bancorp that it doesn't already own for $1.9 billion, extending a wave of consolidation as the banking industry struggles to deal with a load of soured debt related to mortgages.
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The Spanish bank already had a nearly 25 percent stake in Sovereign, a Philadelphia-based thrift, and will buy the rest with stock valued at about $3.81 for each share of Sovereign, a premium of 3.5 percent to Sovereign's closing price on Monday.

The deal, which had been rumored earlier in the day, was announced after trading closed Monday.Sovereign's shares fell 13 cents to $3.68 in the regular trading session but jumped 16 cents in after-hours trading following the announcement.

Like many U.S. banks, Sovereign Bancorp has been pummeled by rising mortgage delinquencies as the housing market tumbles. Its stock has lost nearly two-thirds of its value in the year to date.

The spreading credit crisis has already resulted in consolidation among national banks including Wachovia Corp., which is being bought by Wells Fargo & Co., and analysts say they've been expecting mid-size, regional banks to be next. Sovereign had said earlier Monday that it was in advanced discussions with Banco Santander.

The driving force behind the consolidation of regional banks is a lack of capital, said Doug Landy, a partner in the U.S. banking practice of law firm Allen & Overy. Large banks and very small banks have a much easier time raising capital than regional banks because big banks can tap into the international markets for cash, while small banks have a local connection.

Ralph Whitworth, a member of Sovereign's board of directors and chairman of its capital and finance committee, said in a statement that the company made the choice because of the "unprecedented uncertainty" in the marketplace.

Banks and other companies in the financial industries are losing money on bad mortgage bets and products that have repackaged these debts as homeowners struggle to keep up with their payments.

Later Monday, after the deal was announced, Sovereign showed just how much it was being affected by these bad bets as it pre-announced its third quarter earnings.

The company said it posted a loss of $982 million, or $1.48 a share in the period ending Sept. 30. That compares to net income of $58.2 million, or 11 cents a share, in the same period last year.

The loss includes a previously announced impairment charge on the bank's Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac perpetual preferred stock of $575 million. Those two companies, which bought mortgages and then resold them packaged as financial instruments, have been taken over by the government.source

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Friday, October 10, 2008

Prudential becomes latest insurer to warn

NEW YORK - Prudential Financial Inc (PRU.N) is the latest major insurer to warn its quarterly profits would miss forecasts, as the shares of rivals were pummeled on concern they would need to raise capital.
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The second-largest U.S. life insurer said on Thursday that third-quarter profit would be cut sharply by losses on poorly performing annuity and investment products and a charge for a legal settlement.

That followed recent profit warnings at U.S. life and property insurer Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG.N) and MetLife Inc (MET.N), the largest life insurer in the United States.

The latter sold new shares at a discount on Wednesday to bolster its capital, raising $2 billion, while Hartford earlier this week received a $2.5 billion capital injection from Allianz SE (ALVG.DE), Europe's biggest insurer.

"Insurers made big investments in mortgage-related securities and are also big holders of stocks and bonds in financial firms that have been wiped out or badly damaged by the credit crisis, such as Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, said Alan Rambaldini, a life insurance analyst at investment research firm Morningstar.

"On top of that, bigger life insurers like Prudential get fees on the size of stock investments behind annuity products they sell to customers, which will drop sharply as the broader market plummets," he said.

'TRADING ON FEAR'

Among other life insurers, Lincoln National Corp (LNC.N), fell 35 percent to $18.31, Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG.N) lost 27 percent to $15.79 a share and Unum Group (UNM.N) fell 30 percent to $14.77.

Life insurance, as measured by the sectoral S&P Life & Health Insurance index (.GSPLIFE), was down 17 percent, making it the second-worst performing sector after automakers.

Even beyond life, XL Capital Inc (XL.N), a large Bermuda-based reinsurer, fell 54 percent to $4.01.

"The group (insurers) are trading on fear right now," said Bret Howlett, Standard & Poor's life insurance analyst. "A lot of investors are worried about capital positions in this unfavorable operating environment.

"People are worried about whether these companies are going to need to raise additional capital. In this environment, it's going to be difficult to raise that capital."

American International Group Inc (AIG.N) shares fell 25 percent to $2.39, one day after the company said it would get more liquidity from the government.

AIG, once the world's largest insurer, got an $85 billion loan from the government three weeks ago when it was on the brink of collapse. Under the new plan, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will take up to $37.8 billion in investment-grade, fixed-income securities from AIG in exchange for cash.

"The government has effectively provided them support for $110 billion. I think they have exhausted that avenue and so I think as they move forward their options have diminished," said Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer of Fifth Third Asset Management.

UNDER PRESSURE

Citing market volatility and extraordinary events affecting financial markets, Prudential has suspended all purchases of its own stock.

It said it has liquidity to meet requirements at the parent company and at all operating subsidiaries and, unless it enters into any strategic deals, its need to access the capital markets before the end of the year would be modest.

"We are comfortable with our risk profile and believe that we are in a strong position to manage through the current environment," said Prudential Chief Executive John Strangfeld, in a statement.

Prudential did not say when it would report third-quarter earnings.

Insurers have been under pressure to keep solid capital positions to maintain their ratings after their investments lost value as financial markets sank in recent weeks.

Keeping high ratings is essential for insurers because lower ratings can mean higher costs and, in some cases, even a loss of business. source

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Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Insurance giant AIG's role in market crisis probed

WASHINGTON - Less than a week after the federal government had to bail out American International Group Inc., the company sent executives on a $440,000 retreat to a posh California resort, lawmakers investigating the company's meltdown said Tuesday.

The tab included $23,380 worth of spa treatments for AIG employees at the coastal St. Regis resort south of Los Angeles even as the company tapped into an $85 billion loan from the government it needed to stave off bankruptcy.

The retreat didn't include anyone from the financial products division that nearly drove AIG under, but lawmakers were still enraged over thousands of dollars spent on catered banquets, golf outings and visits to the resort's spa and salon for executives of AIG's main US life insurance subsidiary.

"Average Americans are suffering economically. They're losing their jobs, their homes and their health insurance," Democratic House Oversight Committee Chairman Henry Waxman scolded. "Yet less than one week after the taxpayers rescued AIG, company executives could be found wining and dining at one of the most exclusive resorts in the nation."

The hearing also revealed that AIG executives hid the full range of its risky financial products from auditors as losses mounted, according to documents released Tuesday by a congressional panel examining the chain of events that forced the government to bail out the conglomerate.

The panel sharply criticized AIG's former top executives, who cast blame on each other for the company's financial woes.

"You have cost my constituents and the taxpayers of this country $85 billion and run into the ground one of the most respected insurance companies in the history of our country," said Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney. "You were just gambling billions, possibly trillions of dollars."

AIG, crippled by huge losses linked to mortgage defaults, was forced last month to accept the $85 billion government loan that gives the US the right to an 80 percent stake in the company.

Waxman unveiled documents showing AIG executives hid the full extent of the firm's risky financial products from auditors, both outside and inside the firm, as losses mounted.

For instance, federal regulators at the Office of Thrift Supervision warned in March that "corporate oversight of AIG Financial Products ... lack critical elements of independence." At the same time, Pricewaterhouse Cooper confidentially warned the company that the "root cause" of its mounting problems was denying internal overseers in charge of limiting AIG's exposure access to what was going on in its highly leveraged financial products branch.

Waxman also released testimony from former AIG auditor Joseph St. Denis, who resigned after being blocked from giving his input on how the firm estimated its liabilities.

Three former AIG executives were summoned to appear before the hearing. One of them, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg — who ran AIG for 38 years until 2005 — canceled his appearance citing illness but submitted prepared testimony. In it, he blamed the company's financial woes on his successors, former CEOs Martin Sullivan and Robert Willumstad.

"When I left AIG, the company operated in 130 countries and employed approximately 92,000 people," Greenberg said. "Today, the company we built up over almost four decades has been virtually destroyed."

Sullivan and Willumstad, in turn, cast much of the blame on accounting rules that forced AIG to take tens of billions of dollars in losses stemming from exposure to toxic mortgage-related securities.

Lawmakers also upbraided Sullivan, who ran the firm from 2005 until June of this year, for urging AIG's board of directors to waive pay guidelines to win a $5 million bonus for 2007 — even as the company lost $5 billion in the 4th quarter of that year. Sullivan countered that he was mainly concerned with helping other senior executives.

Sullivan also came under fire for reassuring shareholders about the health of the company last December, just days after its auditor, Pricewaterhouse Cooper, warned of him that AIG was displaying "material weakness" in its huge exposure to potential losses from insuring mortgage-related securities.

AIG's problems did not come from its traditional insurance subsidiaries, which remain healthy, but instead from its financial services operations, primarily its insurance of mortgage-backed securities and other risky debt against default. Government officials feared a panic might occur if AIG couldn't make good on its promise to cover losses on the securities; investors feared the consequences would pose a threat to the US financial system, which led to the government bailout.

AIG suffered huge losses when its credit rating was cut, thanks largely to complex financial transactions known as "credit default swaps." AIG was a major seller of the swaps, which are a form of insurance, though they are not regulated that way.

The swap contracts promise payment to investors in mortgage bonds in the event of a default. AIG has been forced to raise billions of dollars in collateral to back up those guarantees.

Sullivan said many of the firm's problems stemmed from "mark to market" accounting rules mandating that its positions guaranteeing troubled mortgage securities be carried as tens of billions of dollars in losses on its balance sheet.

This in turn, said former AIG chief executive Willumstad, who ran the company for just three months after Sullivan left, forced the firm to raise billions of dollars in capital. The federal rescue came after AIG suffered disastrous liquidity problems after its credit rating was lowered, forcing the company to come up with even more capital.

"AIG was caught in a vicious cycle," Willumstad said in the testimony.

Greenberg said that AIG "wrote as many credit default swaps ... in the nine months following my departure as it had written in the entire previous seven years combined. Moreover, "unlike what had been true during my tenure, the majority of the credit default swaps that AIGFP wrote in the nine months after I retired were reportedly exposed to subprime mortgages."

But Sullivan said the complex swaps had underlying value, even as the market for them froze, sending their book value plummeting and forcing AIG to scramble for collateral.

"When the credit markets seized up, like many other financial institutions, we were forced to mark our swap positions at fire-sale prices as if we owned the underlying bonds, even though we believed that our swap positions had value if held to maturity," Sullivan said.

The hearing is the second in two days into financial excesses and regulatory mistakes that have spooked stock and credit markets and heightened fears about a global recession source

Retirement accounts have lost $2 trillion — so far

WASHINGTON - Americans' retirement plans have lost as much as $2 trillion in the past 15 months — about 20 percent of their value — Congress' top budget analyst estimated Tuesday as lawmakers began investigating how turmoil in the financial industry is whittling away workers' nest eggs.

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The upheaval that has engulfed financial firms and sent the stock market plummeting is also devastating people's savings, forcing families to hold off on major purchases and even delay retirement, Peter Orszag, the head of the Congressional Budget Office, told the House Education and Labor Committee.

As Congress investigates the causes and effects of the meltdown, the panel pressed economists and other analysts on how the housing, credit and other financial troubles have battered pensions and other retirement funds, which are among the most common forms of savings in the United States.

"Unlike Wall Street executives, America's families don't have a golden parachute to fall back on," said Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., the panel chairman. "It's clear that their retirement security may be one of the greatest casualties of this financial crisis."

More than half the people surveyed in an Associated Press-GfK poll taken Sept. 27-30 said they worry they will have to work longer because the value of their retirement savings has declined.

Orszag indicated the fear is well-founded. Public and private pension funds and employees' private retirement savings accounts — like 401(k)'s — lost about 10 percent between the middle of 2007 and the middle of this year, and lost another 10 percent just in the past three months, he estimated.

Private retirement plans may have suffered slightly more because those holdings are more heavily skewed toward stocks, Orszag added.

"Some people will delay their retirement. In particular, those on the verge of retirement may decide they can no longer afford to retire and will continue working," Orszag said.

A new AARP study found that because of the economic downturn, one in five workers 45 and older has stopped putting money into a 401(k), IRA or other retirement savings account during the past year, and nearly one in four has increased the number of hours he works. More than one-third of these workers have considered delaying retirement, according to the study, which also found that more than half now find it difficult to pay for basic items such as food, gas and medicine.

The hearing came just as workers are receiving — or about to receive — their quarterly retirement savings account statements, which are likely to show disheartening drops in the value of holdings.

Jerry Bramlett, the head of BenefitStreet Inc., a retirement savings plan administration company, said there's a risk that people will overreact to the bad news by pulling their money out of the accounts, which could add to their potential losses.

"For participants with many years of retirement, a drastic abandonment of equity positions in their retirement account will only serve to lock in as-of-yet-unrealized losses. Markets do go up and down, and 401(k) participants must try to think long-term," Bramlett said.

Still, he said workers should do their best to diversify their retirement savings accounts and "perhaps consider less volatile investments."

On the heels of enacting a $700 billion market bailout, lawmakers are searching for ways to help workers who are feeling the ripple effects of the financial crisis.

"What should we be doing to try to find a way to salvage the retirement position of American workers?" said Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, an opponent of the government rescue plan. Congress, he added, "rushed to protect Wall Street in hopes that some benefits would trickle down to workers."

The massive losses have already reopened a bitter and long-running debate about what role — if any — the government should play in helping workers save for retirement.

Some experts argue that the hefty tax subsidies that Congress has put in place in recent decades for 401(k) and other worker-contribution accounts have made people's retirement income less secure by shifting risks, decisions and costs from employers to people who often know little about investing.

"They are fatally flawed," Teresa Ghilarducci, an economist at the New School for Social Research, said of the tax-advantaged plans. "They're too risky, and it's not good policy to have workers run their own retirement plan. They want government help."

Common mistakes workers make include overinvesting in a single stock — often their company's — and participating in funds that carry large fees or involve excessive risk, the witnesses said.

"You cannot tell the participants at the bottom of your fund prospectus, 'Warning: Your psychology may lead you to make irrational choices,'" said Christian E. Weller of the University of Massachusetts Boston.

The current market turmoil adds to an already difficult retirement savings picture for Americans, who are increasingly shouldering the burden of managing and funding their own company-sponsored retirement savings plans as firms eliminate traditional pensions.

Even before the recent downturn, older Americans were on track to continue working longer. Twenty-nine percent of people in their late 60s were working in 2006, up from 18 percent in 1985, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the next decade, the number of workers who are 55 and older is expected to increase at more than five times the rate of the overall work force, the BLS reported.

Falling home values and now the decimation of much of their savings could plunge older Americans into period of austerity not seen in decades, Miller said: "The fear factor is huge, and they don't see the availability of resources to them to get well."

Orszag said the situation has little precedent in American history.

"The period that we're experiencing is arguably the greatest collapse in confidence that we've experienced since the Great Depression," he said.

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Sunday, October 5, 2008

Philamlife awaits buyer as parent firm sells assets

NO SINGLE domestic insurer can afford to buy Philippine American Life Insurance Co. (Philamlife) and any taker will need the help of a foreign financier, analysts said, unless Manila’s top financial companies opt to expand their own insurance businesses.

And while the country’s conglomerates may have the ready cash to match Philamlife’s P170 billion in assets and net worth of P49.5 billion, the question is whether they would be willing to dip their hands into a non-core business, they added.

Even the Yuchengco Group of Companies, which has launched an offer, may need to find a partner, and an outside one at that, to purchase Philamlife, put up for sale by its parent firm in the US in the wake of a worsening financial crisis.

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) on Friday announced that it would be selling assets, Philamlife included, to repay an $85-billion lifeline extended by the US government. Philamlife, a wholly-owned unit, will be sold with some local affiliates.

Yuchengco group officials declined to comment when asked on the progress of talks following AIG’s announcement. Lorenzo V. Tan, president and CEO of Yuchengco-owned Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) said there was "no word at this time".

Philamlife has eight subsidiaries whose businesses include pre-need plans, bancassurance, healthcare, banking, credit cards, asset management, property and casualty insurance, property management and development, and business process outsourcing.

These subsidiaries are Philam Equitable Life Assurance Company, Philam Plans Inc., Philam Care, AIG Philam Savings Bank, Philam Asset Management Inc., Philam Properties, AIG Business Processing Services, Inc. and Philam Insurance.

"Philamlife is a very good candidate for acquisition. The ones interested in the financial assets would be foreign institutions," Astro C. del Castillo of First Grade Holdings, Inc. said.

"They [Yuchengcos] can get a good partner and sweetener and be part of a consortium and at the end of the day, they’ll have the controlling stake," another analyst said, noting how the Yuchengcos were able to buy Nippon Life’s insurance business. Nippon Life, a joint venture of the Yuchengco group and a Japanese firm, has been renamed Great Life Financial Assurance Corp.

The Yuchengco’s insurance business includes Great Pacific Life Assurance Corp. (Grepalife), unlisted non-life insurer Malayan Insurance Co. Inc., and Great Life Financial Assurance Corp. It also lists Funeraria Paz Sucat, Inc. and Lifetime Plans as insurance businesses.

Industry officials doubt the possibility of local insurers forming a consortium as a majority of Philippine insurance firms are mainly family-owned.

"I would discount forming a consortium. Who would have the controlling stake would be an issue," said Peter G. Coyiuto, former chief of the 34-strong Philippine Life Insurance Association and president of First Life Insurance.

Despite Philamlife being AIG’s "crown jewel" in Asia, analysts said prospective foreign buyers may cherrypick from the American financial giant’s insurance units in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong where the business is more lucrative.

"If you buy a company, you look at the future stream of income. AIG’s peak operation is in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan," Mr. Coyiuto said.

Conglomerates owned by the Gokongwei family, tobacco magnate Lucio Tan and retail tycoon Henry Sy would have the liquidity AIG needs but insurance may not be their cup of tea, analysts said.

The banking industry’s big players Metropolitan Trust and Bank Corp. (Metrobank) and Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) are unlikely takers with each already having their insurance affiliates, analysts said. Metrobank has Axa Philippines, while BPI has Ayala Life. - source

Citi: Wells Fargo blocked from buying Wachovia

Citigroup says NY judge temporarily agrees to block Wells Fargo from acquiring Wachovia

NEW YORK (AP) -- The fight over control of Wachovia intensified Saturday, as a judge temporarily agreed to block the sale of the bank by Wells Fargo, Citigroup announced in a news release.

State Supreme Court Justice Charles Ramos issued the order blocking the sale of Wachovia Corp., which Wells Fargo & Co. had agreed to purchase in a $14.8 billion deal.

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Citigroup Inc. accused Wells Fargo of trying to cut off its earlier takeover offer of Wachovia's banking operations for $2.1 billion in a deal struck with the assistance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. On Friday, four days after that deal was struck, Wells Fargo said it was buying Wachovia.

The litigation pits two of the largest remaining financial institutions against one another as the ongoing credit crisis leads the federal government to arrange marriages and sales among banking entities.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup did not immediately respond to messages left late Saturday seeking comment about the temporary order blocking the sale.

Wachovia spokeswoman Christy Phillips-Brown said in a statement the company believes its agreement with Wells Fargo is "proper, valid and ... in the best interest of shareholders, employees and the American taxpayers."

She said Citigroup is free to make a better offer to Wachovia under that agreement.

The FDIC said Friday that it "stands behind its previously announced agreement with Citigroup." It also said it would review all proposals and work with regulators of all three institutions to resolve the tug-of-war.

Citigroup says it has an exclusivity agreement that bars Wachovia from talking with other potential buyers. Its shares fell sharply after the surprise announcement of the Wells Fargo-Wachovia agreement. source

Friday, October 3, 2008

Colleges scramble as investment fund freezes

By JOHN CHRISTOFFERSEN, AP Business Writer Fri Oct 3, 1:02 AM ET

NEW HAVEN, Conn. - An investment fund that serves about 1,000 colleges and private schools partially froze withdrawals this week amid the credit crunch, forcing colleges to develop new plans to pay bills.
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Wachovia Bank, trustee for the $9.3 billion Short Term Fund offered by Commonfund, said Monday it was terminating the fund and establishing a process to ensure the orderly liquidation and distribution of the fund's assets. Wachovia initially told investors Monday that they could only withdraw 10 percent of their money, but that figure was increased to 34 percent by Wednesday and 37 percent by Thursday.

Commonfund, a Wilton, Conn.-based nonprofit that advises colleges and schools on money management, also said Thursday it put a 30 percent limit on withdrawals from its Intermediate Term Fund after investors in the Short Term Fund tried to withdraw money from that fund, said Keith Luke, managing director of Commonfund.

About 200 colleges and universities have about $1 billion in the intermediate fund, which is used for long-term needs, such as equipment plant purchases, he said.

"We just didn't have the liquidity in the fund to do that," Luke said. "We will relax that as soon as market conditions permit."

Partially freezing the Short Term Fund as officials prepare for liquidation prevents a run on money and protects investors, said Laura Fay, a Wachovia spokeswoman.

"It was not something we took lightly," Fay said. "In this environment, we felt this was the best way to proceed."

Some colleges are securing lines of credit because of the restriction on accessing money from the short-term account, according to Matthew Hamill, senior vice president of the National Association of College and University Business Officers. That means borrowing costs that effectively reduce their rate of return in the original investment, he said.

Hamill said he does not expect the issue to affect students and their families and noted that the crisis has eased somewhat with a greater percentage of cash allowed to be withdrawn.

"I think most institutions are feeling far more confident in the short run the fund will be there for what its needs are," Hamill said. "The remaining question on everyone's mind is exactly when the remaining balance in the account will be available."

Assumption College in Worcester, Mass. had about $20 million in the fund, but was able to get back nearly a third of that, said Christian McCarthy, the school's executive vice president and treasurer. The redemption and other funds enabled the college to pay all its bills, he said.

"It's been a tremendous inconvenience," McCarthy said. "It really did come as quite a shock. It is disconcerting."

The fund provides returns slightly above U.S. Treasury bills. About 85 percent of the fund was invested in high-quality commercial paper from blue chip companies, while the rest is in securities backed by mortgages and other assets, Luke said.

Amid the housing industry slump and turmoil affecting banks and credit markets, such investments have become increasingly unpopular as investors seek safer options like Treasury bills.

Commonfund said recently volatile markets have hurt the 15 percent to 20 percent of the Short Term Fund's portfolio held in mortgage- and asset-backed securities.

There have been no defaults in the fund's portfolio so far, Luke said.

"Credit markets have frozen, which has made trading of even the highest quality short term financial assets impossible at virtually any reasonable price," Commonfund wrote in a letter to clients Wednesday. "In light of these markets, we believe that the trustee feared that a sudden increase in redemptions could force a liquidation of securities in a frozen market and decided to take pre-emptive action."

Commonfund said it pledged $50 million of its corporate reserves in April to back the fund. Commonfund also said it was looking for a new trustee for the Short Term Fund in order to re-establish the program in largely the same form.

Fay said Wachovia's decision was not affected by last week's announced $2.1 billion deal for Citigroup to buy Wachovia's banking operations.

Wachovia's decision to slowly liquidate the fund is designed to prevent a rush by investors. When a fund sees such a rush, fund managers must sell assets — typically at a loss when it must be done quickly, and especially amid the recent market turmoil.

A slow liquidation helps protect investor returns and ensure each investor would be treated equally.

A rescue package approved by the Senate late Wednesday would let the government spend billions of dollars to buy bad mortgage-related securities and other devalued assets held by troubled financial institutions. If successful, advocates say, that would allow frozen credit to begin flowing again and prevent a serious recession.

By the end of the year, investors in the Short Term Fund will be able to withdraw at least 57 percent of their money, Luke said. Asked if investors will ultimately get all their money back, Luke said, "We certainly expect that."

Commonfund is working with the colleges and schools to help them find alternative sources of financing, Luke said.

"We feel terrible for them," Luke said. "We want to help them. We're working very hard to do so."

Bethany College — a Lutheran school in Lindsborg, Kan., with 600 students and a $12 million budget — has $700,000 invested in the fund.

"Obviously we weren't planning on withdrawing all at once," said Aubrey Streit, a spokeswoman. "We're just re-evaluating our plan for how we will work with the cash flow over the course of the next academic year."

Bethany College is not in a state of panic, Streit said, but she noted that the investment was a significant part of its budget.

"It wasn't something we expected," Streit said. "It really makes it real to see the financial impact coming here."

Grinnell College in Iowa had about $4.8 million in the fund, but was able to withdraw 34 percent, said Russell Osgood, the college's president. With a $1.5 billion endowment, he was not worried.

"It has had no effect," Osgood said. source

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

White House, lawmakers plan new bailout deal

WASHINGTON - Hard-pressed U.S. consumers curbed their spending during August despite an unexpected jump in incomes, according to a government report on Monday that implied worry about the economy's direction was deepening.
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The Commerce Department said consumer spending was flat in August after barely edging up by a revised 0.1 percent in July, a much weaker outcome than forecast by Wall Street economists surveyed by Reuters who had a 0.2 percent spending rise.

Incomes from wages and salaries and all other sources rose by 0.5 percent in August, largely reversing July's revised 0.6 percent drop and well ahead of forecasts for a smaller 0.2 percent gain. Incomes had been boosted early in the year by payments made under an economic stimulus program but that has largely worn off.

"These payments are now winding down," the department said. Since about two-thirds of U.S. economic output is driven by consumer spending on goods and services and there has been a steady month-by-month loss of jobs in addition to the waning stimulus payments, prospects for spending in coming months are not promising.

"It looks like we are poised to see a real-term decline in personal consumption and that will likely result in a negative GDP number in the third quarter," said James O'Sullivan, economist at UBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut.

The income and spending data had no impact on financial markets, which still were grappling with news of another U.S. bank merger and with details of the huge taxpayer-financed bailout program for U.S. financial firms.

Despite higher August incomes, consumers facing higher prices for gasoline and other items were unable to save more. The personal savings rate dropped to 1 percent from 1.9 percent in July.

Meanwhile, the report pointed to persistent inflation pressures. The personal consumption expenditures index on a year-over-year basis rose 4.5 percent in August, only barely below the 4.6 percent rise posted in July. Core prices that exclude food and energy were up 2.6 percent -- the highest rate since the beginning of 1995.

White House, lawmakers plan new bailout deal

WASHINGTON - Top congressional and White House officials, stunned when the House rejected a massive rescue plan for the nation's economy, scrambled to structure a new bailout proposal that would attract reluctant lawmakers and still soothe the unnerved financial markets.
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"Doing nothing is not an option," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said after seeing the $700 billion emergency package for the nation's financial systems fail 228-205 on Monday.

With the House not scheduled to meet again until Thursday, congressional leaders and Bush administration officials promptly sought to assess what types of changes could win over enough votes to guarantee success. President Bush planned to make a statement on the rescue plan at 8:45 a.m. EDT Tuesday.

The outcome of Monday's vote fed a huge sell-off in the stock market, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into its biggest single-day plunge, 777 points. The House vote and the market's terrified reaction shook Washington and New York centers of power — even overseas markets — but no immediate solution seemed at hand.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Tuesday said in a statement that lawmakers should not start from scratch as they weigh their next move.

From the campaign trail, the Illinois senator proposed that one change would be to raise from $100,000 to $250,000 the amount of federal deposit insurance for bank accounts. He said that such a move would be a boost for small businesses and would make the U.S. banking system more secure as well as restore public confidence in the nation's financial system.

Obama also said further inaction would be catastrophic for the economy and for American families.

The bill's failure came despite furious personal lobbying by Bush and support from House leaders of both parties. But the legislation was highly unpopular with the public, ideological groups on the left and the right organized against it, and Bush no longer wielded the influence to leverage tough votes. Even pressure in favor of the bill from some of the biggest special interests in Washington, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Realtors, could not sway enough votes.

The legislation the administration promoted would have allowed the government to buy bad mortgages and other deficient assets held by troubled financial institutions. If successful, advocates of the plan believed it would help lift a major weight off the already sputtering national economy.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson emerged after the vote and warned of a credit crunch that would affect American businesses and said families would find it harder to get student loans and car loans.

"We need to work as quickly as possible," he said gravely. "We need to get something done."

The sense of urgency was not universal. Many opponents of the bill argued that the package amounted to a too-costly commitment of taxpayer money to bail out financial institutions for their own mistakes.

Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., offered a typical sentiment. "I cannot with good conscience put Nevada's taxpayers on the hook for the foolish excesses of Wall Street," he said. "Congress should pass legislation that protects the taxpayer, assists with bad assets and allows the market to correct itself."

Immediately following the vote, Republican leaders blamed their failure to secure more votes on the partisan tone of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's pre-vote speech on the House floor. "There were a dozen members who we thought ... we had a really good chances of getting on the floor," said Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio. "And all that evaporated with that speech."

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the gruff but quick-witted chairman of the House banking committee, countered, "Give me the names of those 12 people and I'll go talk uncharacteristically nice to them."

Behind the bluster, lawmakers pledged to work again. Hoyer met with House Republican Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri, one of the lead GOP negotiators from the House.

Blunt, noting that the House would break for the Jewish holidays until Thursday, said, "We are going to have a couple days to see how the marketplace reacts to all this, and maybe that's a good thing."

House members weren't going home to campaign for re-election "until this is addressed," Hoyer vowed.

Both Blunt and Hoyer suggested that the Senate could vote first on a bill then send it to the House, but Senate leaders showed no inclination to take up a bill without being certain of its fate in the House.

"What would be wrong, I think, would be to act without some kind of clear indication from the House about how they're going to proceed," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. "We don't need to start all over."

The two men campaigning to replace Bush watched the situation closely — from afar — and demanded action.

In Iowa, Republican John McCain said that Obama and congressional Democrats "infused unnecessary partisanship into the process. Now is not the time to fix the blame; it's time to fix the problem."

Obama said, "Democrats, Republicans, step up to the plate, get it done."

The burden for votes fell more strongly on Republican leaders. About three out of five House Democrats voted for the legislation; only a third of Republicans backed it.

Republicans, already seeking possible votes, floated several ideas. One would double the $100,000 ceiling on federal deposit insurance. Another would end rules that require companies to devalue assets on their books to reflect the price they could get in the market. source

With deal's collapse, the McCain camp attacks

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa: Besides stockholders whose portfolios were ravaged Monday afternoon, the one person with the most riding on the bailout bill that collapsed in Congress may have been Senator John McCain.

McCain had announced last week that he was suspending his presidential campaign to work to ensure the legislation's passage, even at the risk of skipping the first presidential debate unless a deal was locked down. (He later relented, debating without a deal.) He had called for the high-level White House meeting that some participants later called unhelpful. And after some initial hesitation, he had allowed himself to be identified with a bill that he thought necessary even if unpopular.

So when the deal fell apart on the House floor Monday, in no small measure because most of the chamber's Republicans balked at voting for it, the McCain campaign worked to contain the potential for damage. The first defense was to go on the offense.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a senior McCain adviser, said "partisan attacks" by Senator Barack Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress had caused some Republicans uncertain about the legislation to turn against it and so had "put at risk the homes, livelihoods and savings of millions of American families." The Obama campaign immediately dismissed that response as "angry and hyperpartisan."

Then, after Obama had urged Americans and the financial markets to "stay calm" in the wake of the rescue plan's collapse, while prodding Congress to "get this done," McCain hastily called a news conference here in which he, too, seemed to place some blame on Obama.
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"Senator Obama and his allies in Congress infused unnecessary partisanship into the process," McCain said, before adding in almost the same breath: "Now is not the time to fix the blame. It's time to fix the problem."

Both campaigns pledged to support efforts to resolve the situation, though they were short on details. McCain's campaign said he would continue to monitor developments closely to see whether more House Republicans could now be persuaded to vote for the bill, or whether it had to be amended to address their concerns. But his aides said there did not appear to be a need to return to Washington immediately, since Congress had recessed for Rosh Hashana.

Holtz-Eakin, the campaign's senior economic adviser, told reporters that "we don't have a specific proposal that we believe is the magic bullet."

"Having failed to have that bill passed through the House," he said, "I think it's time to regroup and see whether it's the content, whether it's the nature of the debate that went on on the floor of the House today, or whether people really just need to take one look around the financial markets and have a wake-up call and do the right thing."

Obama had said he was inclined to support the bill that failed Monday. But it remains an open question how much political capital he will seek to expend, or how invested he wants to become, in helping Democratic leaders win passage of a bill.

The failure of the measure took both camps by surprise. Obama, who was campaigning Monday in Colorado, had already sent reporters the advance text of a speech he planned to give lauding the agreement. And McCain, at a rally in Columbus, Ohio, seemed to be taking some credit for the bill.

Democrats had said all along that by inserting himself into negotiations, McCain had brought presidential politics to a delicate situation and could wind up hurting more than helping. After the House vote, his aides bristled at the suggestion that his involvement had in fact been a drawback, saying he had been instrumental in getting House Republicans a seat at the negotiating table and helping bring in more of their votes.

Holtz-Eakin said McCain had made "dozens of calls" on the bill, some to House Republicans who opposed it.

Aides to Obama said he had not directly reached out to try to sway any House Democrats who opposed the measure. But where McCain had accused Obama of taking a hands-off approach to the financial crisis, Democratic advisers said they believed that McCain now had a role in the legislation's failure.

As aides to both campaigns pointed fingers, Obama sought to stay above the fray and maintain a steady demeanor that advisers maintain has set him apart throughout the financial turmoil.

"One of the messages that I have to Congress is, Get this done," he said in Colorado after the House vote. "Democrats, Republicans, step up to the plate and get this done. Understand even as you get it done to stabilize the markets, we have more work to do to make sure that Main Street is getting the same kind of help that Wall Street is getting. We cannot forget who this is for. This is for the American people. This shouldn't be for a few insiders."

source

Monday, September 29, 2008

Bailout vote begins

The House, following four hours of heated and emotional debate, started to vote Monday on a sweeping $700 bailout of the nation's financial system.

The debate included impassioned pleas for and against the measure from Democrats and Republicans alike. Even some of those arguing the legislation must be approved were quick to point out problems with it.

But in the end, the vote began with both Democratic and Republican leadership telling their members the only way to protect the economy from a spreading credit crunch was to vote for the difficult to swallow measure.

"Our time has run out," said Rep. Spencer Bachus, the ranking Republican on the House Financial Services Committee. "We're going make a decision. There are no other choices, no other alternatives."

The vote comes after lawmakers and the Bush administration finalized legislation following a weekend of high-stakes negotiations over the controversial measure, which is designed to get battered U.S. credit markets working normally again.

"Today is the decision day," said Barney Frank, D-Mass., on the House floor. "If we defeat this bill today, it will be a very bad day for the financial sector of the American economy and the people who will feel the pain are not the top bankers and top corporate executives but average Americans."

House Minority Leader John Boehner told his members, many of whom objected the measure, that the had accept something he and many of them found distasteful.

"If I didn't think we were on the brink of an economic disaster it would be the easiest thing to say no to this," Boehner said. But he said lawmakers needed to do what was in the best interest of the country.

Leading House Republicans signed on to the proposal on Sunday after expressing earlier reservations. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Sunday he hoped for a vote in that chamber by Wednesday at the latest.

Earlier on Monday, President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hailed the measure and urged Congress to move quickly to pass it.

Bush, speaking at the White House, called the proposed measure "an extraordinary agreement to deal with an extraordinary problem." He said he is confident the measure will win bipartisan support.

"With this strong and decisive legislation, we will help restart the flow of credit so American families can meet their daily needs and American businesses can make purchases, ship goods and meet their payrolls," Bush said.

Bush acknowledged that many voters were opposed to helping out Wall Street with tax dollars, but said there is little choice to move forward with the plan. He said most if not all of the tax money spent to buy distressed mortgage-backed securities should be recouped when the Treasury sells them in the coming years.

"Every member of Congress and every American should keep in mind - a vote for this bill is a vote to prevent economic damage to you and your community," Bush said.

Bernanke, who had spent hours before Congress last week testifying in favor of the measure, issued a brief statement promising that it would restore the flow of credit to households and businesses. "I look forward to swift passage of the legislation," he said.
Buying troubled assets

The core of the bill is based on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's request for authority to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions so banks can resume lending and so the credit markets, now virtually frozen, can begin to operate more normally.

But Democrats and Republicans - concerned about the potential cost - have added several conditions and restrictions to protect taxpayers on the down side and give them a chance at some of the potential upside if the companies benefit from the plan.

Key negotiators for the financial rescue plan were e busy trying to line up votes on Capitol Hill on Sunday. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told CNN he believes a majority of representatives on both sides of the aisle can and will support the bill.

On Sunday evening, the House Republican working group, which stringently opposed earlier drafts of the plan and offered a counterproposal, indicated it would support the bill, and its members are encouraging other Republicans in the House to do the same.

"Nobody wants to have to support this bill, but it's a bill that we believe will avert the crisis that's out there," House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, told reporters.

But the bill did draw some opposition during the morning debate.

Rep. John Culberson, R-Texas, said the measure would leave a huge burden on taxpayers. "This legislation is giving us a choice between bankrupting our children and bankrupting a few of these big financial institutions on Wall Street that made bad decisions," he said.

Other conservative Republicans argued the bill would be a blow against economic freedom.

Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., said the bill posed a choice between the loss of prosperity in the short term or economic freedom in the long term. He said once the federal government enters the financial market place, it will not leave. "The choice is stark," he said.

But there were also Democrats who opposed the bill for not doing enough to help those who taxpayers facing foreclosure or needing unemployment benefits extended, or taxing Wall Street to pay for the rescue package.

"Like the Iraq war and patriot act, this bill is fueled by fear and haste," said Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas.
The crisis and a proposed fix

Banks and Wall Street firms, worried about both their own needs for cash and the condition of other institutions, essentially stopped loaning money to one another in recent weeks. That choked off the money being made available on Main Street in the form of mortgage loans, business loans and other consumer borrowing.

The crisis stems from problems in mortgage-backed securities, which saw their value plunge as home prices have gone into their worst slide since the Great Depression and foreclosures have soared to record levels. In turn, the market for trillion of dollars worth of those securities held by major firms evaporated, sending them down to fire sale prices and raising the risk of widespread failures among the nation's major financial firms.

Under the plan, Treasury will buy the mortgage backed securities, either directly from the firms or through an auction process. It may also arrange to provide guarantees for the securities up to their original values in return for premiums they would charge current holders of the securities.

To make the legislation more politically palatable, the bill calls for the government, as an owner of a large number of mortgage securities, to exert influence on loan servicers to modify more troubled loans to help prevent additional foreclosures. It also provides that the government will take equity in the firms that sell the securities to the government, and limits pay packages for top executives.

The legislation comes amid great upheaval in the nation's financial system. On Monday morning, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which insures deposits at failed banks, arranged for the sale of the banking assets of Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500), the nation's No. 4 bank holding company, to Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) for $2.2 billion in stock.

That follows three weeks of other shocks: the Treasury Department's seizure of mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500); Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing; rival Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) purchase by Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).

In addition, the Fed bailed out insurance giant American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500), loaning it $85 billion in return for a nearly 80% stake. while Washington Mutual (WM, Fortune 500), the nation's largest savings and loan, became the largest bank failure in history. To top of page..source

Obama, McCain give measured support for bailout

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain on gingerly embraced a newly negotiated congressional deal for a $700 billion bailout of the hobbled financial industry.
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"This is something that all of us will swallow hard and go forward with. The option of doing nothing is simply not an acceptable option," McCain said. Obama said he was inclined to back it "because I think Main Street is now at stake."

True to form after a week of posturing, both campaigns sought to take at least partial credit for the outcome. Obama said McCain did not deserve any pats on the back.

"Here are the facts: For two weeks I was on the phone everyday with (Treasury) Secretary (Henry) Paulson and the congressional leaders making sure that the principles that have been ultimately adopted were incorporated in the bill," Obama said in an interview on "Face the Nation" on CBS.

McCain said the latest version of the plan meets his insistence of an oversight body to monitor the treasury secretary and limits the compensation of executives of financial institutions applying for loans.

"Let's get this deal done, signed by the president, and get moving, because the real effect of this is going to restore some confidence, and get some credit out there, and get the economic system moving again, which is basically in gridlock today," McCain told "This Week" on ABC.

The measure would allow the government to buy defaulted mortgages and other distressed housing-related assets, many of them held by Wall Street banks, in an effort to keep the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression from spreading throughout the entire economy.

Obama predicted quick passage of the measure, which he said contained important consumer-friendly provisions he had supported. "Today, thanks to the hard work of Democrats and Republicans, it looks like we have a rescue plan that includes these taxpayer protections," Obama said in remarks prepared for a Detroit rally. "And it looks like we will pass that plan very soon."

McCain made a show on Wednesday of "suspending" his campaign to return to Washington to help negotiate terms of a bailout agreement. He initially suggested that Friday's presidential debate be postponed if no deal was struck. But his campaign ads continued to air and McCain attended the debate even though there was no deal.

While McCain is not on a Senate committee involved with the financial crisis, he said Sunday he rushed back to Washington because he was not going to "phone in" his advice.

"I'm a Teddy Roosevelt Republican. I've got to get in the arena when America needs it," McCain said.

Republicans generally have said his participation helped prod the agreement. Democrats countered that his presence had little effect on the outcome and may have even delayed a deal.

"Whether I helped or hurt, I'll be glad to accept the judgment of history," McCain said.

McCain said he planned to return to full-time campaigning Monday.

He also said he probably would have voted for legislation to keep the government running even though it contained thousands of the type of pork barrel projects he strongly opposes.

The $634 billion measure passed the Senate on Saturday. It also includes $25 billion in taxpayer-subsidized loans for automakers.

Like McCain, Obama spent parts of several days in Washington because of the bailout talks. But he has returned to the trail and on Sunday he and running mate Joe Biden planned to attend a rally in Detroit, the home of the nation's auto industry. Michigan is a key battleground in the November.

Obama said in his television interview that he was inclined to support the bailout because it includes increased oversight, relief for homeowners facing foreclosure and limits on executive compensation for chief executives of firms that receive government help.

"None of those were in the president's provisions. They are identical to the things I called for the day that Secretary Paulson released his package," Obama said. "That I think is an indication of the degree to which when it comes to protecting taxpayers, I was pushing very hard and involved in shaping those provisions."

The safeguards were supported by many in Congress, including Democrats and Republicans.

Congressional leaders continued to work through the weekend on the bailout package and hoped to have a vote on the measure Monday in the House, with a vote in the Senate coming later.

The Republican vice presidential candidate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, credited McCain with helping to ensure that the bailout plan protected taxpayers. Reporters were kept at a distance when she made a campaign stop in Philadelphia, although Palin took one question about the $700 bailout agreement.

"I'm thankful that John McCain is able to have some of those provisions implemented in that Paulson proposal," she said. "I'm glad that John McCain's voice was heard."

Paulson Must Make $700 Billion Rescue for Banks Work

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and congressional Democrats hammered out a consensus on spending up to $700 billion to rescue the financial industry. There isn't consensus on whether it would work.

Lawmakers reached agreement yesterday as House Republican leaders backed away from opposition to the proposal after it included plans to create insurance for mortgage-backed securities. The House and Senate are scheduled to vote on the bill early this week, although it wasn't clear last night that it has sufficient votes to pass the House.

Giving the Treasury authority to buy so many distressed securities from lenders is without precedent, and it's unclear how the government will pay prices that strike a balance between protecting taxpayers and preventing more bank failures. source

``This has a reasonable chance of pulling back from the brink and having some success, but it's far from certain that will be the case,'' said former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, now vice chairman of consultant Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington.

Stocks tumbled around the world after the worsening credit crisis threatened to topple more banks. In Europe, governments have been forced to rescue Fortis, Belgium's largest financial- services company, and three other institutions in the past two days alone.

Market Drop

The region's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index dropped 3.5 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 1.8 percent. While the dollar strengthened against the euro and the pound, the cost of borrowing the U.S. currency for three months rose to 3.88 percent, the highest level since January. That's up from 2.81 percent a month ago.

``You're not resolving the two fundamental issues: You still have to recapitalize the banking system, and household debt is going to stay high,'' said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics and economics professor at New York University.

The bill gives Paulson $250 billion at the start to buy assets, increasing the amount to $350 billion upon ``written certification'' from the president that the secretary is ``exercising the authority'' to buy assets. The Treasury chief, or whoever succeeds him, may use the remaining $350 billion if Congress fails to reject a request for it within 15 days.

Buying Assets

The proposed law lets Paulson buy assets ``at the lowest price that the Secretary determines to be consistent with the purposes of this Act.'' The bill doesn't require any specific method for the purchases beyond saying mechanisms such as auctions or reverse auctions should be used ``when appropriate.'' Treasury officials declined to discuss how the plan will be implemented.

Democratic and Republican leaders trust that Paulson can avert a collapse after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and the government was forced to take over American International Group Inc. Success hinges on whether he can help banks raise capital after $556 billion in writedowns and losses, and get credit flowing through the economy.

``We have clearly seen a run of failures of financial institutions not like anything we've seen since the Great Depression,'' House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, told reporters yesterday. ``If we didn't do this, there would be far worse pain in the sense of the lending freezing up.''

`Fragile Situation'

The plan, which foreign banks with U.S. operations can also tap, failed to staunch concerns across global markets about the health of the banking system. Governments have been forced to rescue Belgium's Fortis, Iceland's Glitnir Bank hf, U.K. mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley Plc and Germany's Hypo Real Estate Holding AG in the past two days.

``It's a fragile situation,'' Paulson said in an interview on CBS television's ``60 Minutes'' program broadcast yesterday. ``It's gotta do it, and we're going to make this work.''

The draft legislation was posted on the House Financial Services Committee's Web site yesterday. It includes a provision to give taxpayers equity stakes in the companies that benefit from the plan.

The bill has a section aimed at limiting the pay of executives at companies that take advantage of assistance by prohibiting tax deductions for officials that exceed $500,000, which is half the normal deductible limit. It also allows ``clawbacks'' of money already paid to executives at troubled companies and forbids so-called golden parachutes.

Community Banks

The legislation takes steps to let some 800 community banks that held preferred stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before the mortgage giants were taken over by the federal government on Sept. 7, make better use of losses for tax purposes than they would otherwise be allowed.

House Republicans offered early resistance to the Paulson plan. They complained that it put the country on the road to socialism and instead argued that elimination of the capital gains tax would spur a wave of investment that would render the bailout plan unnecessary.

House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio commissioned Virginia Representative Eric Cantor to draft a rival plan without telling Democrats or Paulson. The plan, which depended on self-funded insurance premiums, was abandoned after Democrats lashed out at Republicans at a White House meeting Sept. 25.

Limited Insurance

Ultimately, Republicans got none of the tax breaks they sought, though the bill includes a limited self-funded insurance program for companies that benefit from the bailout. Last night Boehner, the top House Republican, urged his colleagues to support the bailout plan.

Some House Republicans, such as Representative Mike Pence of Indiana, are still holding out. ``We now have a deal that promises to bring near-term stability to our financial turmoil, but at what price?'' Pence said in a letter to colleagues.

Pence called the plan ``the largest corporate bailout in American history'' and that it would ``nationalize almost every bad mortgage in America.''

Paulson, the 62-year-old former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chairman, said such a strategy is necessary to stabilize financial markets. ``We will have turbulence and turmoil in our financial system for some time, but I believe that this is going to work,'' he said on ``60 Minutes.''

`Some Doubts'

Yet as members of Congress and their staffs worked late nights over the past week negotiating and writing compromise legislation, money markets failed to improve. ``It just raised some doubts in my mind whether this was going to be sufficient,'' said Meyer, who was on the Fed board when the Asian financial crisis struck in 1997.

Should the plan fail, ``there may have to be a more substantial participation by the federal government to buy mortgages,'' Frank said last night. Any alternative proposal would involve ``significant purchases directly of the foreclosed mortgages.''

Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who will be on a five-member oversight board for the program, have signaled that their priority is shoring up the nation's banks even if it means they don't get taxpayers the cheapest prices for the devalued assets the government buys.

The proposal also sets the stage for an overhaul of financial regulation next year, something Frank is already planning. The draft bill requires the Treasury secretary to report to Congress and make recommendations by April 30 on whether to regulate additional participants in the financial markets.

``It'll give us some temporary respite from the earlier pressures,'' said Joseph Mason, a Louisiana State University finance professor who formerly worked in the bank-research division of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. ``If we don't use that respite to design more permanent policy, we will find ourselves back in the same place.''

Thursday, September 25, 2008

What's All This Stuff Worth?

What would you pay, sight unseen, for a house that nobody wants, on a hard-luck street where no houses are selling?

That question is easy compared to the one confronting the Treasury Department as Washington works toward a vast bailout of financial institutions. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is proposing to spend up to $700 billion to buy troubled investments that even Wall Street is struggling to put a price on.

A big concern in Washington — and among many ordinary Americans — is that the difficulty in valuing these assets could result in the government's buying them for more than they will ever be worth, a step that would benefit financial institutions at taxpayers' expense.

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Anyone who has tried to buy or sell a house when the market is falling, as it is now, knows how difficult it can be to agree on a price. But valuing the securities that the Treasury aims to buy will be far more difficult. Each one of these investments is tied to thousands of individual mortgages, and many of those loans are going bad as the housing market worsens.

"The reality is that we are not going to know what the right price is for years," said Andrew Feltus, a bond portfolio manager at Pioneer Investments, a mutual fund firm based in Boston. "It might be 20 cents on the dollar or 60 cents on the dollar, but we won't know for years."

While prices of most stocks are no mystery — they flicker across PCs and televisions all day — the troubled investments are not traded on any exchange. The market for them is opaque: traders do business over the telephone, and days can go by without a single trade.

Not only that, many of these instruments are extremely complex. Consider the Bear Stearns Alt-A Trust 2006-7, a $1.3 billion drop in the sea of risky loans. Here's how it worked:

As the credit bubble grew in 2006, Bear Stearns, then one of the leading mortgage traders on Wall Street, bought 2,871 mortgages from lenders like the Countrywide Financial Corporation.

The mortgages, with an average size of about $450,000, were Alt-A loans — the kind often referred to as liar loans, because lenders made them without the usual documentation to verify borrowers' incomes or savings. Nearly 60 percent of the loans were made in California, Florida and Arizona, where home prices rose — and subsequently fell — faster than almost anywhere else in the country.

Bear Stearns bundled the loans into 37 different kinds of bonds, ranked by varying levels of risk, for sale to investment banks, hedge funds and insurance companies.

If any of the mortgages went bad — and, it turned out, many did — the bonds at the bottom of the pecking order would suffer losses first, followed by the next lowest, and so on up the chain. By one measure, the Bear Stearns Alt-A Trust 2006-7 has performed well: It has suffered losses of about 1.6 percent. Of those loans, 778 have been paid off or moved through the foreclosure process.

But by many other measures, it's a toxic portfolio. Of the 2,093 loans that remain, 23 percent are delinquent or in foreclosure, according to Bloomberg News data. Initially rated triple-A, the most senior of the securities were downgraded to near junk bond status last week. Valuing mortgage bonds, even the safest variety, requires guesstimates: How many homeowners will fall behind on their mortgages? If the bank forecloses, what will the homes sell for? Investments like the Bear Stearns securities are almost certain to lose value as long as home prices keep falling.

"Under the current circumstances it's likely that you are going to take a loss on these loans," said Chandrajit Bhattacharya, a mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse, the investment bank.

The Bear Stearns bonds are just one example of the kind of assets the government could buy, and they are by no means the most complicated of the lot. Wall Street took bonds like those of Bear Stearns and bundled and rebundled them into even trickier investments known as collateralized debt obligations, or C.D.O.'s

"No two pieces of paper are the same,"said Mr. Feltus of Pioneer Investments.

On Wall Street, many of these C.D.O.'s have been selling for pennies on the dollar, if they are selling at all. In July, Merrill Lynch, struggling to bolster its finances, sold $31 billion of tricky mortgage-linked investments for 22 cents on the dollar. Last November, Citadel, a large hedge fund in Chicago, bought $3 billion of mortgage securities and other investments for 27 cents on the dollar.

But Citigroup, the financial giant, values similar investments on its books at 61 cents on the dollar. Citigroup says its C.D.O.'s are relatively high quality because they were created before lending standards weakened in 2006.

A big challenge for Treasury officials will be deciding whether to buy the troubled investments near the values at which the banks hold them on their books. That would help minimize losses for financial institutions. Driving a hard bargain, however, would protect taxpayers.

"Many are tempted by a strategy of trying to do both things at once," said Lawrence H. Summers, a former Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. As a hypothetical example, Mr. Summers suggested that an institution could have securities on its books at $60, but the current market price might only be $30. In that case, the government might be tempted to come in at about $55.

Many financial institutions are so weak that they must sell their troubled assets at prices near the value on their books, Carlos Mendez, a senior managing director at ICP Capital, an investment firm that specializes in credit markets. Anything less would eat into their capital.

"Depending on your perspective on the economy, foreclosure rates and home prices, the market may eventually reflect that price. But most buyers are not willing to make that bet right now," he said. "And that's why we have these low prices."

Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, told Congress on Tuesday that the government should avoid paying a fire-sale price, and pay what he called the "hold-to-maturity price," or the price that investors would bid if they expected to keep the bond till it was paid off.

The government would buy the troubled investments with the intention of eventually selling them back to the market when prices recover.

The Treasury has suggested it might conduct reverse auctions to determine the price for securities that are not trading in the market.

Unlike in a traditional auction in which would-be buyers submit bids to the seller, in a reverse auction the buyer solicits bids from would-be sellers. Often, the buyer agrees to pay the second-highest bid submitted to encourage sellers to compete by lowering their bids for all the assets submitted. The buyer often also sets a reserve price and refuses to pay any more than that price.

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But Mr. Paulson told Congress on Tuesday that the government would use many other means in addition to auctions, suggesting that it would exercise wide discretion over the final prices to be paid.

Financial institutions will have an incentive to sell their worst assets to the government, a risk that the Treasury will have to guard against, said Robert G. Hansen, senior associate dean at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. more

"I am worried that the people who are going to offer the securities to the government will be the ones that have the absolute worst toxic waste," Professor Hansen said. Even so, he added, the government could actually make a profit on its purchases — provided the Treasury buys at the right prices. Richard C. Breeden, a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, said the auctions could thaw parts of the markets that have been frozen since late last year.

"One of the problems that many institutions are having is finding any bid for some of these assets, even though they are not without value," said Mr. Breeden, who is chairman and chief executive of Breeden Capital Management, an investment firm in Greenwich, Conn.

"What are these assets worth?" asked Mr. Breeden. "Sometimes, because of fear or extreme uncertainty in the markets, you get in a situation in which there are no bids at all, or at least no realistic bids."

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